Open Letter to Democrats From a Disillusioned Young Voter

by Carl Gibson (shared by Carla Hansen) 

Dear Democrats,

Are you listening? President Obama says he hears us. He says that people don’t have a reason to show up to vote if the politicians they have to choose from don’t motivate them. He’s partially right. But that’s only part of a much larger problem. To all you would-be elected officials looking for my generation’s support at the polls, listen closely – get populist or get ready to lose bad.

2014’s low voter turnout was historic. Voter turnout actually hasn’t been this low since the 1940s. As Mother Jones pointed out, voter turnout for people under 30 was dismal. In this election, people like me only made up 12 percent of those who voted, while people aged 60 and older made up almost 40 percent of total voters. In 2012, when President Obama was re-elected and Congressional Democrats made gains in the House and Senate, millennials made up almost one-fifth of all voters, and voters 60 and older made up just 25 percent of the electorate, bringing us a little closer to a tie. It isn’t hard to see the difference – this year, Republicans steamrolled you, Democrats, because most of us stayed home and let our Fox-watching uncles and grandparents decide on who was going to represent everyone else.

So how do older people pick who runs Congress? Like every other voting bloc, they pick the ones who run on issues most important to them. And as Vox reported, data consistently shows that younger people want their tax dollars spent on education and job creation. Older voters want their money spent on Social Security and war. The Republicans who swept the U.S. Senate ran largely on fear campaigns over ISIS, promising to be more hawkish than their opponents in an eagerness to pour money and troops into Iraq and Syria to snuff out America’s newest boogeyman.

Contrast the unified Republican message with the profound silence from you Democrats on addressing the trillion-dollar student debt crisis, rampant inequality and underemployment, and your collective fear of openly embracing economic populism, and you cook up what we saw on Tuesday night. Older people showed up, highly motivated to elect war hawks. Younger people mostly stayed home, disillusioned with the only alternative on the ballot who didn’t even talk about the issues affecting our lives every day.

The few of us who did show up to vote largely did it to support state ballot initiatives that actually mattered in our daily lives. We still voted to raise the minimum wage in 4 states to a slightly more respectable amount, and to $15 an hour in San Francisco. We voted for a week of paid sick days in Massachusetts, and for marijuana legalization in three more states. We voted to turn nonviolent drug offenses from felonies into misdemeanors in California. We even boosted high voter turnout in Michigan for Gary Peters, a Democrat who made climate change – something we’ll have to confront long after the boomers are gone – his top issue. We just didn’t vote for Democrats who haven’t done anything for us since we voted for them in 2012, and who brazenly took our votes for granted this year.

Even though the Republicans have made it clear they won’t raise the minimum wage, legalize marijuana, or address climate change as long as they’re in power, they at least have a unified message that appeals to enough people who share their values. They can also communicate that message in a confident way. The Republican platform comes in easy-to-remember, tweet-sized sentences. We all know their buzzwords – “national security,” “family values,” “free markets.” That may translate to endless war, homophobia, and corporate feudalism for the better-informed, but for most people, those are catch phrases they can get behind.

You Democrats, on the other hand, looked pitiful in the year leading up to the midterms. You didn’t seem to stand for anything in particular, you just pointed the finger at the other guy, told us they were bad, and that you weren’t like them. That’s not enough. Take a risk, be bold. Get behind Elizabeth Warren’s 0.75 percent interest rate for student loans. Allow student debt to be abolished with bankruptcy. Push for single-payer healthcare, or at the very least a public health insurance option. Need some catchy buzzwords? Try “affordable education,” “good jobs,” and “healthy families.”

President Obama hit the nail on the head – we won’t show up and vote for you if you aren’t offering us anything real. If Democrats want to stay relevant, they’ll have to learn to stop taking us for granted and actually make an effort to get our votes. Simply banking on being the lesser evil and having that be enough won’t cut it any longer.

The Enduring Republican Grip on the House

By Nate Cohn (shared by Scott Lyons) 

Whatever doubts existed about the Republican grip on the House should now be gone.

By picking up at least a dozen House seats in the elections last Tuesday, the Republicans cemented a nearly unassailable majority that could last for a generation, or as long as today’s political divides between North and South, urban and rural, young and old, and white and nonwhite endure.

Democrats might well reclaim the Senate and hold the presidency in 2016. But any Democratic hopes of enacting progressive policies on issues like climate change and inequality will face the reality of a House dominated by conservative Republicans. The odds that the Republicans will hold the Senate and seize the presidency are better than the odds that Democrats will win the House, giving the Republicans a better chance than Democrats of enacting their agenda.

After all of the remaining races are resolved, the G.O.P. will finish with about 249 seats. The Democrats would need to flip 32 seats to reclaim the chamber, but just 10 Republicans hail from districts with a Democratic Cook partisan voting index, a statistic to measure how far a congressional district leans toward the Republican or Democratic Party, compared with the national average. Because so many Republicans represent conservative districts, the G.O.P. might even retain the House in a “wave” election, like the ones that swept Democrats to power in 2006 and brought Republicans back to power in 2010.

The Republican grip on the House is underpinned by the tendency for Democrats to waste votes in heavily urban or nonwhite districts; the low Democratic turnout in off-year elections; the recent Democratic advantage in presidential elections; the advantages ofincumbency; and partisan gerrymandering. Ending partisan gerrymandering would not be enough to end the Republican advantage in the House, and last Tuesday’s results for state legislatures and for governors’ races further strengthened the Republicans’ ability to control the redistricting process.

The median House seat is held by a Republican who represents a district that voted for Mitt Romney in 2012, even in a year in which President Obama won by four percentage points nationally. The Republicans hold only 28 seats in districts that were carried by Mr. Obama. Many of these seats would fall to the Democrats in an anti-Republican year. The 12 newly elected Republicans who won seats in districts carried by Mr. Obama in 2012 are particularly vulnerable; many of these freshman Republicans could lose re-election in 2016.

Yet Democrats will have a struggle to win all of the seats held by Republicans that voted for Mr. Obama in 2012. The benefits of incumbency will allow many of these Republicans to defy even the most inhospitable conditions. And some of these Republicans, like Dave Reichert of Washington or Frank LoBiondo of New Jersey, are survivors of the 2006 and 2008 waves.

To gauge the problem for Democrats, look at the Cook partisan voting index, which measures districts by presidential votes. (A district with a D+5 P.V.I., for instance, has offered the Democratic presidential candidate a share of the popular vote 5 percentage points higher than the national average over the last two presidential elections.) If a future Democratic wave were to flip Republican-held seats at the same rate as the Democratic wave in 2006 or the Republican one in 2010 (that is, win about 30 percent of the R+3 seats, and 25 percent of the R+4 seats), they would gain about 27 seats — short of the 32 necessary to retake the House.

Democrats could do even better in the D+1-or-better seats than this scenario projects, but they could also do worse among the seats with a P.V.I. of R+6 or more Republican, where the estimate assumes the Democrats would win four seats. Republicans didn’t win a single seat that was so Democratic in 2010, and the big gains that Democrats made among these seats in 2006 were driven by problems among Republicans who were accused of corruption.

Even if the Democrats could retake the House in an anti-Republican wave, it probably won’t come with a Democratic president to take advantage of it. The party with the presidency rarely makes big gains in Congress. As my colleague Lynn Vavreck put it, the economy elects presidents; presidents elect Congress.

In other words, a Republican president is probably a prerequisite to a Democratic House. And even a Republican president might not assure another wave like 2006 or 2010, which itself would not even assure a Democratic House.

November Calender

  • Kensington Fire Protection District Board MeetingWednesday, Nov. 12, 7:30 p.m.  Kensington Community Center, 59 Arlington Ave
  • Kensington Police Protection and Community Services District Board MeetingThursday, Nov. 13, 7:30 p.m. Kensington Community Center, 59 Arlington Ave
  • El Cerrito City Council Meeting, Tuesday, November 18, 7:00 p.m. City Council Chambers, 10940 San Pablo Ave
  • El Cerrito Planning Commission, Wednesday,  November 19, 7:30 p.m. El Cerrito Council Chambers, 10940 San Pablo Ave
  • SF Bay Area Chapter of the Sierra Club 90th Anniversary Celebration Wednesday, November 19, 6:00 p.m. The New Parish, 1743 San Pablo Ave, Oakland
  • Contra Costa County Central Committee Meeting  Thursday, November 20, 7:30 p.m. Martinez Senior Center, 818 Green St, Martinez
  • Lung Cancer Awareness Event Friday, November 21 4:00 p.m. El Cerrito Library 6510 Stockton Ave El Cerrito
  • Community Meeting about Ohlone Greenway Landscape Maintenance Saturday, November 22, 10:00 a.m. El Cerrito City Hall 10890 San Pablo Ave El Cerrito
  • ECDC Holiday Party-Friday, December 12, 6:30 p.m. 1001 Elm St El Cerrito
  • Emerge California Program Kick Off Reception Saturday, December 6, 6:30 p.m. San Francisco